Bitcoin ETF Spot Breaks Sequence of Exits with $70 Million in Inflows

November 30, 2025 - Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US finally broke a sequence of 5 consecutive days of exits, recording $70 million in net inflows last Friday. The reversal of flow coincides with Bitcoin stabilizing above $95,000 after weeks of volatility.

Quick Summary

• ✅ $70M in inflows after 5 days of exits
• ✅ BlackRock IBIT leads with $40M in inflows
• ✅ Fidelity FBTC adds $25M
• ✅ Bitcoin reacts positively, up 2.3%
• ⚠️ Grayscale GBTC continues with $15M in outflows

The Context: A Difficult Week for ETFs

Sequence of Exits

November 21-27:

• Monday: -$120M
• Tuesday: -$85M
• Wednesday: -$95M
• Thursday: -$110M
• Friday: -$75M
• Total: -$485M in 5 days

Reasons:

1. Realization of profits after Bitcoin reached $99,800
2. Thanksgiving holiday (low volume)
3. Uncertainty over breaking $100K
4. End-of-month rebalancing

The Reversal

November 29 (Friday):

• Inflows: $95M
• Outflows: $25M
• Net: +$70M

First net inflow since November 20.

Breakdown by ETF

Top Performers (Inflows)

1. BlackRock IBIT

• Inflows: $40M
• AUM: $52.3B
• Performance: Consistent leader

2. Fidelity FBTC

• Inflows: $25M
• AUM: $18.7B
• Performance: Strong institutional demand

3. Bitwise BITB

• Inflows: $15M
• AUM: $4.2B
• Performance: Accelerated growth

4. ARK 21Shares ARKB

• Inflows: $10M
• AUM: $3.8B
• Performance: Recovery after outflows

5. VanEck HODL

• Inflows: $5M
• AUM: $1.2B
• Performance: Stable

Outflows Continue

Grayscale GBTC

• Outflows: $15M
• AUM: $21.5B (falling)
• Reason: High fees (1.5% vs 0.2% of competitors)

Other smaller ETFs: -$10M combined

Impact on Bitcoin Price

Immediate Reaction

Before announcement: $94,800 After announcement: $97,000 (+2.3%) Current: $96,500

24h Volume: $52B (+15% vs average)

Technical Analysis

Supports:

• $95,000 (strong)
• $92,000 (critical)

Resistances:

• $98,000 (immediate)
• $100,000 (psychological)

Indicators:

• RSI: 65 (neutral)
• MACD: Positive
• Volume: Above average

What Changed?

1. End of Holiday

Thanksgiving ended = traders returned to the market.

Volume:

• During holiday: $35B/day
• Post-holiday: $52B/day (+48%)

2. Bitcoin Stabilized

$95K-$97K = comfort zone for institutions.

Volatility:

• During correction: 8-12%/day
• Now: 2-3%/day

3. December Approaching

December historically bullish:

• 2024: +12.5%
• 2023: +11.2%
• 2021: +19.8%
• 2020: +46.9%

Average: +22.6% in bull market years

4. End-of-Month Rebalancing

Institutional funds rebalanced portfolios at the end of the month.

Expected flow: $500M-$1B in inflows in the first week of December.

Comparison with Other Months

November 2025 (Total)

Inflows: $3.2B Outflows: $2.8B Net: +$400M

Performance: Moderate (after strong October)

October 2025 (Record)

Inflows: $5.8B Outflows: $1.2B Net: +$4.6B

Performance: Excellent (rally from $75K to $95K)

September 2025

Inflows: $2.1B Outflows: $2.5B Net: -$400M

Performance: Weak (correction from $88K to $75K)

What to Expect in December?

Base Scenario (Probability: 60%)

Flows: $2-3B in net inflows Bitcoin price: $100K-$110K Reason: December historically bullish + positive momentum

Optimistic Scenario (Probability: 25%)

Flows: $4-5B in net inflows Bitcoin price: $110K-$120K Reason: Institutional FOMO + breaking $100K

Pessimistic Scenario (Probability: 15%)

Flows: -$500M to $0 (outflows or neutral) Bitcoin price: $85K-$95K Reason: Realization of profits + negative event

Analysis of Top ETFs

BlackRock IBIT - The Giant

AUM: $52.3B (largest Bitcoin ETF) Flows in November: +$1.2B Fee: 0.25%

Why it leads:

• BlackRock brand (trust)
• High liquidity
• Low spread
• Aggressive marketing

Fidelity FBTC - The Competitor

AUM: $18.7B Flows in November: +$800M Fee: 0.25%

Advantages:

• Fidelity customer base (millions)
• Integration with investment accounts
• Customer support

Grayscale GBTC - The Declining

AUM: $21.5B (falling) Flows in November: -$600M Fee: 1.5% (much higher)

Problem: High fees 6x higher than competitors.

Solution: Grayscale launched GBTC Mini (fee 0.15%) but still has not migrated all assets.

Institutional Impact

Who's Buying?

1. Pension Funds

• Allocation: 1-3% in Bitcoin
• Volume: $50-100M/month

2. Family Offices

• Allocation: 5-10% in Bitcoin
• Volume: $100-200M/month

3. Hedge Funds

• Allocation: 10-20% in Bitcoin
• Volume: $200-500M/month

4. Corporate Treasuries

• Examples: MicroStrategy, Tesla
• Volume: $500M-$1B/month

Total Institutional

Estimated: $1-2B/month in institutional demand via ETFs.

Bitcoin supply: 450 BTC/day = $43M/day = $1.3B/month

Result: Demand > Supply = Pressure on Bitcoin price to rise.

Comparison with Gold ETFs

Gold ETFs (GLD, IAU)

Total AUM: $120B Flows in 2025: -$5B (outflows) Reason: Investors migrating to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETFs

Total AUM: $110B Flows in 2025: +$25B (inflows) Reason: "Digital gold" gaining traction.

Trend: Bitcoin may surpass gold in AUM by 2026.

Strategies for Investors

For HODLers

Action: Maintain positions, ignore short-term volatility.

Reason: Institutional flows are bullish in the long term.

For Traders

Opportunity: Buy in corrections to $92K-$95K.

Target: $100K-$105K (short-term).

Stop-loss: $90K.

For New Investors

Strategy: DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging).

Example: Buy $500/week regardless of price.

Reason: Reduce risk of timing mistakes.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Is $70M a lot or a little?

Moderate. Strong days have $200M-$500M. Breaking the sequence of exits is positive.

2. Does this guarantee Bitcoin will reach $100K?

No. But it's a bullish sign. Institutional flows usually precede price increases.

3. Why is Grayscale still showing outflows?

High fees (1.5%). Investors migrating to cheaper ETFs (0.2-0.25%).

4. Should I buy an ETF or Bitcoin directly?

ETF: Easier, regulated, in investment account. Bitcoin directly: You control the keys, no annual fees.

5. Which ETF is better?

BlackRock IBIT or Fidelity FBTC (both 0.25% fee, high liquidity).

6. Do ETF inflows affect the price?

Yes. ETFs need to buy Bitcoin on the spot market when there are inflows.

7. Will December be bullish?

Probably (60% chance). December historically strong + positive momentum.

8. What if there are more outflows?

Correction to $85K-$90K is possible. But long-term trend remains bullish.

9. Are institutions selling?

No. Outflows were temporary realization of profits. Trend is accumulation.

10. Is it worth investing now?

Yes, if you have a 6+ month horizon. Short-term may have volatility.

Conclusion: Positive Signal for December

Breaking the sequence of exits with $70 million in inflows is a positive signal for December. Although not a massive volume, it shows that:

• ✅ Institutions returned after the holiday
• ✅ Demand is recovering
• ✅ Bitcoin stabilized above $95K
• ✅ Momentum may accelerate in December

Expectation: December should bring $2-3 billion in net inflows, pushing Bitcoin to $100K-$110K.

For investors: Favorable time to accumulate or maintain positions. Corrections to $92K-$95K are buying opportunities.